Will China's new solar power capacity slow in 2025?

REUTERS/Muyu Xu/ File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights BEIJING, Aug 13 (Reuters) - China's new solar power capacity will slow in the second half of 2025 as reforms removing guaranteed pricing create uncertainty for new projects, though full-year additions will still likely reach a record high because of frontloading, analysts say.

How long does it take to restructure China's solar industry?

Restructuring in silicon, wafer, and module manufacturing could take months or years to take effect. The government’s stance is clear: China’s solar sector, once a symbol of industrial policy success, now faces pressure to shift from rapid expansion to quality-focused consolidation. This content is protected by copyright and may not be reused.

Will China curb low-price competition & excess capacity in the solar sector?

China’s top industry officials have vowed to curb low-price competition and excess capacity in the solar sector, as authorities begin implementing measures aimed at stabilizing supply chains and rebalancing the market. China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) Image: 維基小霸王, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

Will China's solar capacity halve in the second half?

Through June, China has added 212 gigawatts of new solar capacity, according to data from the National Energy Administration, more than double the first-half 2024 additions. But based on that figure, the latest annual forecasts from analysts show that capacity additions are likely to roughly halve in the second half compared to last year.

How did China control the global solar market?

The increased installed capacity, the heavy manufacturing, and the availability of materials on its domestic land allowed China to control the global solar market by imposing quotas and restrictions on importing countries. We have shown that China alone installed more than 50 % of the total Asian solar capacity in the span of 25 years.

Will China's solar industry restructure?

Still, analysts remain cautious about the pace and scale of restructuring. While central policymakers have drawn a clear line, overcapacity remains entrenched across China’s solar value chain. Restructuring in silicon, wafer, and module manufacturing could take months or years to take effect.