How will tariffs affect solar market growth?

Policy uncertainty and rising costs due to tariffs will impact market growth across all solar segments. Proposed tax credit changes and stricter regulations on foreign entities could also result in a more significant market contraction.

How will New York's solar market perform in 2025?

New volumes in New York also declined slightly, even as the state continues to represent 52% of the total market. We expect the national community solar market to contract 22% this year, following a particularly strong 2024 for the segment. However, installed capacity in 2025 will still exceed 2023 volumes, reaching approximately 1.5 GWdc.

What is solar technology cost analysis?

NREL’s solar technology cost analysis examines the technology costs and supply chain issues for solar photovoltaic (PV) technologies. This work informs research and development by identifying drivers of cost and competitiveness for solar technologies.

How healthy is the community solar market?

Despite lengthening project development timelines, pipelines in key community solar state markets remain healthy, supporting the market’s health throughout our five-year outlook. Overall, we expect the national market to contract by 6% on average annually through 2030.

How will the community solar market change in 2025?

The community solar market will experience a more significant contraction, with capacity declining by 22% year-over-year in 2025, following a record year in 2024. Lastly, utility-scale installations will drop by 2% in 2025 after two solid years of growth.

How does the US solar industry affect project economics?

Notably, despite the US solar industry’s reliance on domestically produced steel, market forces triggered an immediate increase in the domestic steel index. This unexpected rise has increased the production costs of tracker manufacturers, potentially affecting project economics. Additionally, US module manufacturers face increased frame costs.